Summary of "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" Leopold Aschenbrenner's 165-page essay, published in June 2024, is a provocative forecast of artificial intelligence (AI) development, arguing that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI capable of performing any intellectual task a human can—is "strikingly plausible" by 2027. Drawing on public data, trendlines, and insider perspectives from his time at OpenAI , Aschenbrenner "counts the OOMs" (orders of magnitude improvements in compute, algorithms, and "unhobbling" techniques like agentic tools) to project rapid progress. From GPT-2 (2019, ~preschooler level) to GPT-4 (2023, ~smart high-schooler), AI scaled ~100,000x in effective compute over four years, enabling another similar leap by 2027, potentially automating AI research and triggering an "intelligence explosion" to superintelligence . The essay unfolds in five main sections: Introduction : San Francisco as the...
.jpg)
_Seite_019.jpg)